Here are the key insights I took from chapter 1 of Annie Duke’s Thinking in Bets:
- Resulting is the tendency to say a decision was good when the result is good.
- Chess involves very little luck so it’s not a good model of life.
- Poker is the sum of decision quality and luck.
- Our lives are the sum of decision quality and luck.
- A few outcomes is not enough to measure decision quality.
- A great decision is the result of a great process.
- When a less likely outcome happens, it doesn’t mean we’re wrong.
- Similarly, when a more likely outcome happens, it doesn’t mean we’re right.