Most of us think in straight lines. One step, then another. One plus one equals two.
But here’s the problem…
Life doesn’t always work that way.
Why We Underestimate Exponential Growth
Our brains aren’t wired to spot exponential patterns. We see slow, steady beginnings and shrug them off. Then it takes off - and suddenly we’re shocked at how fast things changed.
Think about viral videos.
One person shares a clip with ten friends. Each of those ten shares it with ten more - now it’s a hundred. Pretty soon, millions are watching.
Exponential growth fools us because it crawls at first - then rockets upward. And when saturation hits, it levels off.
But that early explosive growth catches us off guard every time.
The Pandemic Whiplash
We all lived through it during COVID-19.
Cases doubled every few days. Numbers skyrocketed. The world scrambled.
And then - almost as suddenly - cases declined.
The drop didn’t follow a neat exponential decay - it was more of a complex dance, with immunity, behavior changes and interventions all stepping in to slow things down.
But that sudden whiplash? Just as shocking.
That’s what real-world feedback loops look like in action.
Technology’s Exponential Curve
Another famous example is Moore’s Law: the observation that computing power roughly doubled every two years.
For decades, that prediction held true. And those who planned for it - like Bill Gates and other tech leaders - rode the curve to build some of the most powerful companies on earth.
Compounding: The Financial Flywheel
Let’s talk money.
Compounding isn’t continuous like exponential growth - it’s geometric. You reinvest your returns each year, and your money multiplies step by step.
Einstein is often (though not definitively) credited as calling compounding the “eighth wonder of the world.” Whether or not he said it, Warren Buffett has lived it - his fortune is the ultimate proof of patience plus compounding.
If compounding works for money…
Why not for everything else?
The Power of Feedback Loops
Here’s where it gets exciting.
At the core of all this are feedback loops: cycles where actions reinforce - or counteract - themselves.
Positive loops amplify.
- More attention drives more attention.
- More infections drive more infections.
- More computing power drives investments toward more computing power.
- More money compounds into more money.
Negative loops stabilize.
- More attention eventually triggers fatigue, reducing attention.
- More infections eventually build immunity, reducing infections.
- More computing power raises costs, slowing further growth.
- More money attracts competition, reducing returns.
Both loops matter. Both create powerful, self-reinforcing dynamics.
Designing Your Own Loops
And here’s the real takeaway:
Feedback loops aren’t just things you observe. They’re things you can build.
In work life…
- Demonstrate behaviors such as clarity, ownership and resilience.
- Mentor others consistently.
- Regularly conduct retrospectives to reflect and improve.
Modeling, mentoring, reflecting - then adjusting - gets amplified.
In software engineering…
- Write thoughtful commit messages.
- Develop comprehensive design documents.
- Document strategy with clear articulation.
Remember that documentation amplifies your thinking and influences how others think, decide and build.
In personal life…
Build small habits that reinforce each other:
- Exercise increases energy.
- Increased energy enhances focus.
- Enhanced focus drives greater productivity.
Once you get a loop spinning, the results build on themselves. What starts as small, ordinary actions turn into extraordinary momentum.
And that’s the secret.
Exponential growth isn’t magic. Geometric compounding isn’t luck. Both are momentum, multiplied.
The Bottom Line
Exponential growth, geometric compounding, and feedback loops are different faces of the same truth: systems that reinforce themselves can feel unstoppable.
The key isn’t just to marvel at them - it’s to design them intentionally.
Because when you do…
Your actions stop working in isolation. They start working together. And that’s how ordinary effort creates extraordinary growth.
External links
- Superlinear Returns | Paul Graham
- The first modern pandemic | Bill Gates
- Information Overload Helps Fake News Spread, and Social Media Knows It | Scientific American
- How To Be Successful | Sam Altman
- The Slight Edge by Jeff Olson | Goodreads
- The 80/20 Principle: The Secret to Achieving More with Less by Richard Koch | Goodreads