Life is poker, not chess

Tue Dec 08, 2020 · 115 words

Here are the key insights I took from chapter 1 of Annie Duke’s Thinking in Bets:

Resulting is the tendency to say a decision was good when the result is good.
Chess involves very little luck so it’s not a good model of life.
Poker is the sum of decision quality and luck.
Our lives are the sum of decision quality and luck.
A few outcomes is not enough to measure decision quality.
A great decision is the result of a great process.
When a less likely outcome happens, it doesn’t mean we’re wrong.
Similarly, when a more likely outcome happens, it doesn’t mean we’re right.

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